New ideas in a digital age

How are new ideas spread through society? Before the digital age, we had mass media to do the job - TV, radio and newspapers and prior to that, more primitive technologies were employed to spread news. But these media were used to spread ideas, news, and views that were often sanctioned by the broadcasting channel or publisher. We can go right back to the oral cultures where stories were told to preserve cultural values and tribal history from generation to generation. This kind of transmission of ideas was less filtered and more closely aligned to the culture it was aimed at. Today we are more and more reliant on social media channels to access ideas and news. Because this content is often crowd sourced and relatively unfiltered, it is arguably closer to the oral culture of ideas transmission than the mass media that dominated during the last century. One of the best explanatory models I have ever seen about the diffusion of ideas was devised by American sociologist Everett Rogers. In his famous 1962 model (in the figure below) Rogers synthesised the work of over 500 published innovation studies, and identified five phases of innovation diffusion, which are represented in the model as adoption types.

An interesting feature of the model is a gap or chasm between the early adopters and the early majority, which has been referred to as the 'bowling alley'. This concept was elaborated further by Geoffrey A. Moore in his 1991 book 'Crossing the Chasm'. For some ideas, this chasm can be difficult to bridge but must be if the idea is to achieve critical mass and penetrate sufficiently into the collective consciousness of the target society or community. This means that enough people have to subscribe to the idea before it becomes acceptable and desirable for the majority of that society. In most cases, 16 per cent is simply not enough. This model is a useful explanatory framework not only for ideas, but also for new technologies.

If we apply Rogers' model to technology in schools it follows that newer technologies such as tablets, games consoles or 3D televisions need to be purchased by enough schools for manufacturers to earn enough income to establish scalability of production, hopefully lowering their prices in the process. Another social effect is the self-help user groups that spring up to support the product and its application.

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In the digital age however, many have questioned whether Rogers' model still has any traction. One critic of the model is Rudi Dornbusch, who argues that change does not always occur along the trajectory that Rogers describes. Why might this be? In a time where the power and reach of mass media is beginning to ebb, and instantaneous global communication is now possible; and where individuals have the power to engage immense audiences through handheld tools, does the model still hold any significance?

Several years ago I published an edited volume entitled Transforming Primary ICT (Wheeler, Ed: 2005). In the opening chapter I attempted to provide a 21st Century contextualisation of Rogers' model. Essentially, I reasoned that the categories of Rogers' innovation adoption model could be reframed to enable a better understanding of how people adopt new technologies in the fast moving and hype-ridden age of disposable devices.

We know that the innovators identified in Rogers' model are those who generally adopt new ideas with little difficulty. Some may stand waiting outside a store for hours before the doors open, so they can be the first to own a new device the moment it is released for sale. For the digital age, I thought of this group as 'techno-romantics' because many who fall into the innovator zone tend to see technology as 'the answer'.

The next group - the early adopters - are often opinion leaders within a community, and in this position of respect, they can influence behaviour. They are a little more pragmatic in their outlook, and tend to buy into a new idea or technology when they see its momentum growing. They may also be 'technophiles', in that they have an affinity with new technology and perceive no particular threat to their way of working, but rather embrace it as a means to enhance or extend their practice.

The early majority are the 'techno-realists' - people who deliberate their decisions about purchase of technology and who carefully watch what the technophiles do, before eventually buying into the trend. By the time this section of society adopts the new idea, prices have already begun to fall due to manufaturing economies of scale, and at this point in the lifecycle, version two has probably been released. At this time, the new technology is no longer seen as a fad, or a gimmick, and probably has earned a certain amount of kudos as a desirable device or tool to use.

By the time the late majority have adopted the technology it is no longer new. The late majority are the 'techno-sceptics' who prefer to remain at the periphery of innovation, and only buy into a new device when it has been long established, and there is evidence of good use, and a large enough support network.

The final group, which Rogers calls the 'laggards' are those who never, or only rarely adopt a new idea or technology. They are in digital terms 'techno-luddites', and in Rogers' terms, this group tend to have no opinions leaders within their ranks, but if provoked or threatened by the new tools, may actually take some form of negative action. According to Venezky (2004) this model can explain the adoption of ICT in schools, and holds true in many countries. Although Rogers' model of diffusion of ideas is now more thanfive decades old, I believe it still has a place in our understanding of how technology is adopted.

References

Moore, G. A. (1991) Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and selling high-tech products to mainstream customers. New York: Harper Business Essentials.
Rogers, E. (1962) Diffusion of Innovations. Glencoe: Free Press.
Venezky, R. L. (2004) Introductory Paper: Technology in the classroom: Steps toward a new vision. Education, Communication and Information, 4(1), 2-22.
Wheeler, S. (Ed: 2005) Transforming Primary ICT. Exeter: Learning Matters.

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New ideas in a digital age by Steve Wheeler is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.
Based on a work at steve-wheeler.blogspot.com.